Quantifying the future?

Quantifying the future?

UK election polling highlights the danger of using quantified opinion as an indicator of future behaviour. The quote of the election for us has to be…

“(Politicians) should campaign on what they believe, not listen to people like me and the figures we produce.” Peter Kellner, President, YouGov.

Could we say the same for innovators?

Quantifying the past is invaluable; sales data being the best example. While the assurance of numbers may be alluring, trying to quantify the future is hopeful at best, dangerous at worst.

We believe research should uncover the underlying needs, motivations and psychology that will influence future reactions; using depth of understanding and insight to inspire, shape and inform ‘belief’.

A simplistic qualitative view of the election – positive economic growth and falling unemployment created the perfect conditions for the inevitable human tendency towards loss aversion. Just add fear to amplify the effect…